Indonesia's Coffee Export Dynamics: Exploring the Impacts of Climate, Trade, and Productivity
Abstract
As the fourth-largest coffee exporter worldwide, Indonesia contributes significantly to the global coffee trade while contending with challenges such as export volatility, trade barriers, and the impacts of climate change. This study aims to investigate the determinants of Indonesia’s coffee exports, focusing on productivity, trade barriers, and climate variability. This study employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze time-series data from 1989 to 2022, sourced from the FAO, WITS, and the World Bank. The findings indicate that, in the long run, coffee imports, trade openness, and the extent of harvested land area are positively correlated with export performance, while export taxes and increasing land temperatures exert negative effects. In the short run, productivity is associated with increased exports, whereas land area appears to have a negative relationship. These findings suggest that addressing trade barriers, improving land management, and enhancing trade openness are essential for strengthening export competitiveness.
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Studentmund. (2016). Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide (7th editio). Pearson.
Tekaligne, Y. (2009). Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performance: A Gravity Model Analysis (Issue 01).
Usman, A. (2014). Impact of Trade Opennes on Export Performance: Case Study of Pakistan.
Widjaya, D., Hariyati, Y., & Soejono, D. (2017). Technical and Economic Efficiency of Smallholder Arabica Coffee Farming in Panti Sub-district, Jember. Pelita Perkebunan (a Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal), 33(1), 51–56. https://doi.org/10.22302/iccri.jur.pelitaperkebunan.v33i1.255
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Yoga, A. P., Syahni, R., & Hasnah. (2023). Technical Efficiency of Coffee Farming in Lima Puluh Kota. Jurnal Ekonomi, 12(03), 1786–1796.
Beckman, J., Estrades, C., Flores, M., & Aguiar, A. (2019). The Impact of Export Taxes on Agricultural Trade (Working Paper 24894).
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (2012). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root D. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(3), 37–41.
Ebisa, D. B. (2017). Impacts of climate change on global coffee production industry: Review. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 12(19), 1607–1611. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajar2017.12147
Fitriani, S. A., Hakim, D. B., & Widyastutik, W. (2021). Analisis Kointegrasi Keterbukaan Perdagangan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 12(2), 103–116. https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v12i2.2033
Gebreyesus, T. (2015). Determinants of Coffee Export Performance in Ethiopia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(5), 147–158. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234646911.pdf
Gizaw, N., Abafita, J., & Merra, T. M. (2022). Impact of coffee exports on economic growth in Ethiopia; An empirical investigation. Cogent Economics and Finance, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2041260
Gujarati. D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics (4th edition (ed.)). McGraw-Hill Companies.
Gujarati, D. N., Dawn, C., & Porter. (2010). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw− Hill.
Hasanah, R. U., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (2022). Factors Analysis Affecting Indonesian Coffee Exports 2000-2020. Journal of Humanities, Social Sciences and Business (Jhssb), 2(1), 1. https://ojs.transpublika.com/index.php/JHSSB/
Herdira, U., & Hakim, D. B. (2021). Factors Affecting the Volume of Indonesian Coffee Export to The International Market. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 4099, 348–354. https://doi.org/10.32628/ijsrset218367
ICO. (2022). World Coffee Statistics Report 2022. International Coffee Organization. https://ico.org/what-we-do/world-coffee-statistics-database/
Lestari, R., & Anindita, R. (2018). Analisis Daya Saing Kopi Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 2(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2018.002.01.1
Nugroho, A. D., & Lakner, Z. (2022). Effect of Globalization on Coffee Exports in Producing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Asian Finance, 9(4), 419–0429. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2022.vol9.no4.0419
OEC. (2023). Product Trade Data. Observatory Economic of Complexity. https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/coffee?redirect=true
Prilliadi, H., & Birinci, A. (2023). A Study on Determinants of Coffee Export from Indonesia to The United States of America. Journal of the Institute Science and Technology, 13(3), 2174–2184. https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.1227055
Purbantoro, B. A., Anggraeni, L., & Pasaribu, S. H. (2024). Impact of Climate Change on The Export of Palm Oil, Coffee Beans, and Cocoa Beans. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 21(1), 25–34. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.21.1.25
Purwawangsa, H., Irfany, M. iqbal, & Haq, D. A. (2024). Indonesian Coffee Exports’ Competitiveness and Determinants. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 21(1), 59–71. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.21.1.59
Pusdatin Pertanian. (2021). Outlook komoditas perkebunan: Kopi. https://satudata.pertanian.go.id/assets/docs/publikasi/%0ABuku_Outlook_Kopi_2022_compressed.pdf.
Putro, F. A. D., Putri, L. A., Prawira, G., & Sahara, S. (2024). Determinan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia: Berpengaruhkah FTA? Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 12(1), 138–152. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2024.9
Rahmah, D. M., Purnomo, D., Filianty, F., Ardiansah, I., Pramulya, R., & Noguchi, R. (2023). Social Life Cycle Assessment of a Coffee Production Management System in a Rural Area: A Regional Evaluation of the Coffee Industry in West Java, Indonesia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 15(18). https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813834
Rahman, R. M., Ridwan, M., & Hadistyana Mutiarahmi. (2024). Indonesian Coffee Exports in The Global Market and The Variables That Affect Them. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam, 6(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.24239/jiebi.v6i1.225.1-15
Salmon, M. (1988). Error correction models, cointegration and the internal model principle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 523–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90054-1
Setiawan, A. B., Nugroho, A. D., Wiyanti, D. T., Yusuf, M., Maslikhatun, A., & Bowo, P. A. (2023). Indonesian Food Production Challenges: Climate, Land and Industrialization. Jejak, 16(1), 74–91. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v16i1.43334
Sihotang, J., Nopeline, N., Luter Purba, M., & Zai, Y. (2024). Studi Determinan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat. Jurnal Ekuilnomi, 6(1), 77–88. https://doi.org/10.36985/dh8ea566
Studentmund. (2016). Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide (7th editio). Pearson.
Tekaligne, Y. (2009). Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performance: A Gravity Model Analysis (Issue 01).
Usman, A. (2014). Impact of Trade Opennes on Export Performance: Case Study of Pakistan.
Widjaya, D., Hariyati, Y., & Soejono, D. (2017). Technical and Economic Efficiency of Smallholder Arabica Coffee Farming in Panti Sub-district, Jember. Pelita Perkebunan (a Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal), 33(1), 51–56. https://doi.org/10.22302/iccri.jur.pelitaperkebunan.v33i1.255
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. In Tolerance Analysis of Electronic Circuits Using MATHCAD (5th editio). South Western Cengage Learning. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315215402-43
Yoga, A. P., Syahni, R., & Hasnah. (2023). Technical Efficiency of Coffee Farming in Lima Puluh Kota. Jurnal Ekonomi, 12(03), 1786–1796.
Published
2025-09-02
How to Cite
SETIAWAN, Avi Budi; YUSUF, Mochammad.
Indonesia's Coffee Export Dynamics: Exploring the Impacts of Climate, Trade, and Productivity.
Eko-Regional: Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah, [S.l.], v. 20, n. 2, p. 139-149, sep. 2025.
ISSN 2620-8849.
Available at: <https://jos.unsoed.ac.id/index.php/er/article/view/14525>. Date accessed: 06 sep. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.32424/er.v20i2.14525.
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Articles
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