A FORECASTING OF RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE TO US DOLLAR BY USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CHENG METHODS

  • Charista Aprilia Putri Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, 53122, Central Java, Indonesia
  • Mutia Nur Estri Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, 53122, Central Java, Indonesia
  • Indra Herdiana Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, 53122, Central Java, Indonesia
  • Idha Sihwaningrum Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, 53122, Central Java, Indonesia

Abstract

As the fluctuation of the Rupiah exchange rate to US dollar plays an important role on economic in Indonesia, then in this paper we provide forecasting of Rupiah exchange rate to US dollar by using fuzzy time series methods. We especially apply the  Markov Chain and Cheng methods. The data used are the daily middle exchange rate data of the Rupiah to US dollar from January 2, 2019, to December 31, 2024. Meanwhile, the main procedure involve fuzzification, defining fuzzy logical relationship, determining fuzzy logical relationship group, and defuzzification. The results provide forecasting with  the value of MAPE of 0.26% for Markov chain method, and 0.17% for Cheng method. Hence, we conclude that the Cheng method provides a better performance in forecasting of Rupiah exchange rate to US dollar compared to that of Markov chain method.

Published
2026-04-16
How to Cite
PUTRI, Charista Aprilia et al. A FORECASTING OF RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE TO US DOLLAR BY USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CHENG METHODS. Proceeding ICMA-SURE, [S.l.], p. 169-181, apr. 2026. ISSN 2808-2702. Available at: <https://jos.unsoed.ac.id/index.php/eprocicma/article/view/20205>. Date accessed: 25 may 2026.
Citation Formats
Issue
Proceeding The 8th International Conference on Multidisciplinary Approaches for Sustainable Rural Development
Section
Articles