PERAMALAN GARIS KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN PURBALINGGA TAHUN 2021-2023 DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING LINIER SATU PARAMETER DARI BROWN

  • Dwi Anggraeni Department of Mathematics, Jenderal Soedirman University
  • Sri Maryani Department of Mathematics, Jenderal Soedirman University
  • Suseno Ariadhy Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Purbalingga

Abstract

Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120.

Published
2021-12-07
How to Cite
ANGGRAENI, Dwi; MARYANI, Sri; ARIADHY, Suseno. PERAMALAN GARIS KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN PURBALINGGA TAHUN 2021-2023 DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING LINIER SATU PARAMETER DARI BROWN. Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika, [S.l.], v. 13, n. 2, p. 155-166, dec. 2021. ISSN 2550-0422. Available at: <http://jos.unsoed.ac.id/index.php/jmp/article/view/4548>. Date accessed: 08 feb. 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.20884/1.jmp.2021.13.2.4548.

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