Two-Level Game Analysis on US Decision to Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Abstract
This study analyzes the reasons behind the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. Using descriptive methods and Two-level Game theory as an analytical tool supported by secondary data, we found some domestic factors driving this policy. First, different preferences existed between the government as the “chief negotiator” and interest groups and public opinion representing domestic interests. Two-level game theory explains that international agreement can only be ratified if the win-set negotiations are in overlapping conditions or where international and domestic preferences find a meeting point. However, no common ground between international and domestic preferences resulted in a deadlock. Second, the U.S. public strongly resisted the agreement. Public opinion and hearings are factors that, to some extent, can become obstacles for national governments in international negotiations. Ratification is not only carried out through a formal process (legislative approval) but also through an informal process (public opinion and approval). In addition, the election of Donald Trump, who carried protectionist values with his “America First” slogan, strengthened the position of the opposing groups and those who embraced protectionist values. Therefore, the election of Trump as the president marked the end of the TPP debate because both the executive as the “chief negotiator” and the dominant domestic group rejected the ratification.
Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, Two-Level Game Theory, United States
References
REFERENCES
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Caddell & Associates. (2016). “Survey of U.S. Voters.” Retrieved from https://getliberty.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Pat-Caddell-ALG-TPP-Poll-Charts-3-10-16.pdf
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Chow, D. C. (2016). How the United States Uses the Trans-Pacific Partnership to Contain China in International Trade. Chicago Journal of International Law, 17 (2), 370-402.
Clausing, K. A. (2020). International trade policy that works for U.S. workers. In Vision 2020 Evidence for a Stronger Economy. Washington: Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
Conceição-Heldt, E. d., & Mello, P. A. (2017). Two-Level Games in Foreign Policy Analysis. In P. Haney, P. Haney, S. Harnisch, J. Kaarbo, K. Oppermann, & A. Tago, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics (pp. 1-33). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
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Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1995). The Politics of Free-Trade Agreements. American Economic Review, 85(4), 667-90.
Haggard, L. (2020). The Trans-Pacific Partnership. Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies, 37(4), 25-38.
Hamanaka, S. (2014). Trans-Pacific Partnership Versus Regional Comprehensive Partnership: Control of Membership and Agenda Setting. Manila: Asia Development Bank
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Koch, M. (2023). The power of coalitions: lobbying success in U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran from 2007 to 2016. Interest Groups & Advocacy, 12, 237–259.
Lewis, M. K. (2011). The Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Paradigm or Wolf in Sheep's Clothing? University at Buffalo School of Law: Digital Commons, 34(27), 27-52.
Liss, J. (2019). Social and Political Drivers of the Reorientation of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The Southern Sociological Society, 6(3), 1-20.
Manyin, M. E., Daggett, S., Dolven, B., Lawrence, S. V., Martin, M. F., O'Rourke, R., & Vaughn, B. (2012). Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
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Milner, H. V. (1997). Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Moravcsik, A. (2005). The European Constitutional Compromise and the neofunctionalist legacy. Journal of European Public Policy, 12(2), 349–386.
Narine, S. (2018). U.S. Domestic Politics and America’s Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Implications for Southeast Asia. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 40(1), 50-76.
Nawawi, H., & Martini, M. (1996). Penelitian Terapan,. Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press.
Oehler-Sincai, I. M. (2016). United States’ “Pivot” Towards Asia-Pacific: Rationale, Goals and Implications for The Relationship with China . Challenges of Doing Business in the Global Economy (pp. 25-31).
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Ramadhani, A., & Muryantini, S. (2019). Latar Belakang Keluarnya Amerika Serikat dari Keanggotaan Trans-Pacific Partnership di Era Presiden Donald Trump. Jurnal Studi Diplomasi dan Keamanan, 11(1).
Schott, J. J., Kotschwar, B., & Muir, J. (2013). Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Washington: Peterson Institute Press.
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Spicer, S., & Hamel, G. (2008). United States to Join Sectoral Negotiations with Four AsiaPacific Countries, Will Explore Participation in Broader Strategic Partnership Agreement. Office of the United States Trade Representatives.
Stevens, D. (2015, Juni 12). “Industries Supporting Trade Bill Contribute Nearly Nine Times More Than Opposing Industries.” MapLight News Archive. Accessed from https://maplightarchive.org/story/industries-supporting-trade-bill-contribute-nearly-nine-times-more-than-opposing-industries/
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Triana, D. (2019). Keluarnya Amerika Serikat dari Kesepakatan Trans-Pacific Partnership di Masa Pemerintahan Donald Trump. eJournal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, 7(4), 1713 - 1724.
Urata, S. (2018). The Trans-Pacific Partnership Origin, Evolution, Special Features and Economic Implications. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 35(1), 1-25.
USTR. (2013). “Overview of the Trans Pacific Partnership-Increasing American Exports, Supporting American Jobs.” Office of The United States Trade Representatives. Accessed from https://ustr.gov/tpp/overview-of-the-TPP#:~:text=U.S.%20exports%20of%20agricultural%20products,of%20total%20U.S.%20agricultural%20exports.
Vile, M. (2007). Politics in the USA. London and New York: Routledge.
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Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G., & Majlesi, K. (2017). Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Baldwin, R. (2011 ). 21st Century Regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules. Geneva: World Trade Organization-Economic Research and Statistics Division.
Ballot Pedia. (2017). “The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal: Public opinion on TPP and TTIP”. Accesed from https://ballotpedia.org/The_Trans-Pacific_Partnership_trade_deal:_Public_opinion_on_TPP_and_TTIP#:~:text=After%20hearing%20arguments%20for%20and,of%20Republicans%20opposed%20the%20deal.
Barfield, C. (2011). The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Model for Twenty-First-Century Trade Agreements? Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
Caddell & Associates. (2016). “Survey of U.S. Voters.” Retrieved from https://getliberty.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Pat-Caddell-ALG-TPP-Poll-Charts-3-10-16.pdf
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Capling, A., & Ravenhill, J. (2011). Multilateralising regionalism: what role for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement? The Pacific Review, 24(5), 553-575.
Carr, C. (2016, Juni 29). “Congress Receives Over Half a Million Petitions To Reject TPP Over Climate Impacts.” Sierra Club. Accessed from https://content.sierraclub.org/press-releases/2016/06/congress-receives-over-half-million-petitions-reject-tpp-over-climate-impacts
Chow, D. C. (2016). How the United States Uses the Trans-Pacific Partnership to Contain China in International Trade. Chicago Journal of International Law, 17 (2), 370-402.
Clausing, K. A. (2020). International trade policy that works for U.S. workers. In Vision 2020 Evidence for a Stronger Economy. Washington: Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
Conceição-Heldt, E. d., & Mello, P. A. (2017). Two-Level Games in Foreign Policy Analysis. In P. Haney, P. Haney, S. Harnisch, J. Kaarbo, K. Oppermann, & A. Tago, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics (pp. 1-33). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Congressional Research Services. (2022). Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). Washington.
Cook, M. (2017). The TPP: Truths about Power Politics. Economic Working Paper, 2017(6), 1-18.
Cook, M. (2017). The TPP: Truths about Power Politics. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Retrieved from https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEASEWP2017-06Cook.pdf
Delreal, J. A., & Sullivan, S. (2018, June 28). “Trump: TPP trade deal ‘pushed by special interests who want to rape our country.” The Washington Post. Accessed from https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/postpolitics/wp/2016/06/28/trump-tpp-trade-deal-pushed-by-special-interests-who-want-to-rape-our-country/
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Elms, D., & Lim, C. L. (2012). The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) negotiations: overview and prospects. Singapore: RSIS Working Papers.
Evans, R., & Kay, T. (2008). How Environmentalists “Greened” Trade Policy: Strategic Action and the Architecture of Field Overlap. American Sociological Review, 73(6) 970-991.
Fadli, M. R. (2021). Memahami desain metode penelitian kualitatif. Humanika, Kajian Ilmiah Mata Kuliah Umum, 21(1), 33-54.
Fearon, J. D. (1994). Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. The American Political Science Review, 88(3), 577-592.
Fergusson, I. F., McMinimy, M. A., & Williams, B. R. (2015). The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Negotiations and Issues for Congress. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
Fergusson, I. F., McMinimy, M. A., & Williams, B. R. (2015). The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Negotiations and Issues for Congress. Washington: Congressional Research Services.
Ferrantino, M. J., Maliszewska, M., & Taran, S. (2019). Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific: Estimated Effects. Policy Research Working Papers. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/033c6f75-93c4-5b13-810a-81e3147439ef/content
Gibson, C. R., & Channing, T. (2015, Mei 27). “Here’s how much corporations paid U.S. senators to fast-track the TPP bill.” The Guardian. Accessed from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/27/corporations-paid-us-senators-fast-track-tpp
Gloria, E. V., & Arugay, A. A. (2021). Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In S. Romaniuk, & P. Marton, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies (pp. 1-7). Palgrave Macmillan Cham.
Grossman, G., & Helpman, E. (1995). The Politics of Free-Trade Agreements. American Economic Review, 85(4), 667-90.
Haggard, L. (2020). The Trans-Pacific Partnership. Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies, 37(4), 25-38.
Hamanaka, S. (2014). Trans-Pacific Partnership Versus Regional Comprehensive Partnership: Control of Membership and Agenda Setting. Manila: Asia Development Bank
Ho, C. (2016, February 11). “Fact-Checking the Campaigns for and against the TPP Trade Deal.” The Washington Post. Accessed from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/02/11/fact-checking-the-campaigns-for-and-against-the-tpp-trade-deal/
Janusch, H., & Mucha, W. (2017). America First: Power and Geopolitics in U.S. Policy under President Trump. Sicherheit und Frieden (S+F) / Security and Peace, 35(3), 110-114.
Keohane, R. O., & Joseph S. Nye, J. (2012). Power and Interdependence. Longman.
Koçak, C. (2016). Interest Groups and U.S. Foreign Policy towards Cuba: the Restoration of Capitalism in Cuba and the Changing Interest Group Politics. Class, Race and Corporate Power, 4 (2).
Koch, M. (2023). The power of coalitions: lobbying success in U.S. sanctions policy toward Iran from 2007 to 2016. Interest Groups & Advocacy, 12, 237–259.
Lewis, M. K. (2011). The Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Paradigm or Wolf in Sheep's Clothing? University at Buffalo School of Law: Digital Commons, 34(27), 27-52.
Liss, J. (2019). Social and Political Drivers of the Reorientation of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The Southern Sociological Society, 6(3), 1-20.
Manyin, M. E., Daggett, S., Dolven, B., Lawrence, S. V., Martin, M. F., O'Rourke, R., & Vaughn, B. (2012). Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
McBride, J., Chatzky, A., & Siripurapu, A. (2021, September 20). “What’s Next for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?” Council on Foreign Policy Relations. Accessed from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp
Milner, H. V. (1997). Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Moravcsik, A. (2005). The European Constitutional Compromise and the neofunctionalist legacy. Journal of European Public Policy, 12(2), 349–386.
Narine, S. (2018). U.S. Domestic Politics and America’s Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Implications for Southeast Asia. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 40(1), 50-76.
Nawawi, H., & Martini, M. (1996). Penelitian Terapan,. Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press.
Oehler-Sincai, I. M. (2016). United States’ “Pivot” Towards Asia-Pacific: Rationale, Goals and Implications for The Relationship with China . Challenges of Doing Business in the Global Economy (pp. 25-31).
Office of the United States Trade Representatives. (n.d.). “TPP Negotiation Updates.” Accessed from https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/tpp-negotiation-updates
Ota, E. N., & Ecoma, C. (2022). Power and National Interest in International Relations. European Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(4), 23-30.
Paul, D. M., & Paul, R. A. (2009). Ethnic Lobbies and U.S. Foreign Policy. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
Pearson, F. S., & Rochester, J. M. (1992). International Relations: The Global Condition in the late Twentieth Century. McGram Hill Inc.
Petri, P. A., Plummer, M. G., Urata, S., & Zhai, F. (2017). Going It Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Planifolia, V. (2017). Strategi Rebalancing Amerika Serikat di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik. Jurnal Hubungan Internasional, 6 (1), 16-26.
Poushter, J. (2015, June 23). “Americans favor TPP, but less than those in other countries do.” Pew Research Center. Accessed from https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2015/06/23/americans-favor-tpp-but-less-than-other-countries-do/
Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games. International Organization, 42(3), 427-460.
Ramadhani, A., & Muryantini, S. (2019). Latar Belakang Keluarnya Amerika Serikat dari Keanggotaan Trans-Pacific Partnership di Era Presiden Donald Trump. Jurnal Studi Diplomasi dan Keamanan, 11(1).
Schott, J. J., Kotschwar, B., & Muir, J. (2013). Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Washington: Peterson Institute Press.
Scott, R. E., & Glass, E. (2016, Maret 3). “Trans-Pacific Partnership, currency manipulation, trade, and jobs.” Economic Policy Institute. Accessed from https://www.epi.org/publication/trans-pacific-partnership-currency-manipulation-trade-and-jobs/
Semuels, A. (2015, October 8). How the Trans-Pacific Partnership Threatens America's Recent Manufacturing Resurgence. Retrieved from The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/trans-pacific-partnership-tpp-manufacturing/409591/
Spicer, S., & Hamel, G. (2008). United States to Join Sectoral Negotiations with Four AsiaPacific Countries, Will Explore Participation in Broader Strategic Partnership Agreement. Office of the United States Trade Representatives.
Stevens, D. (2015, Juni 12). “Industries Supporting Trade Bill Contribute Nearly Nine Times More Than Opposing Industries.” MapLight News Archive. Accessed from https://maplightarchive.org/story/industries-supporting-trade-bill-contribute-nearly-nine-times-more-than-opposing-industries/
U.S Embassy & Consulates in Indonesia. (n.d). The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Building on U.S. Economic and Strategic Partnerships in the Asia-Pacific. Accessed from: https://id.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/policy-history/embassy-fact-sheets/the-trans-pacific-partnership-building-on-u-s-economic-and-strategic-partnerships-in-the-asia-pacific/
Triana, D. (2019). Keluarnya Amerika Serikat dari Kesepakatan Trans-Pacific Partnership di Masa Pemerintahan Donald Trump. eJournal Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, 7(4), 1713 - 1724.
Urata, S. (2018). The Trans-Pacific Partnership Origin, Evolution, Special Features and Economic Implications. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 35(1), 1-25.
USTR. (2013). “Overview of the Trans Pacific Partnership-Increasing American Exports, Supporting American Jobs.” Office of The United States Trade Representatives. Accessed from https://ustr.gov/tpp/overview-of-the-TPP#:~:text=U.S.%20exports%20of%20agricultural%20products,of%20total%20U.S.%20agricultural%20exports.
Vile, M. (2007). Politics in the USA. London and New York: Routledge.
Published
2023-11-22
How to Cite
MAHENDRA, Yusril Ihza; SAFIRA, Radina; MUHIDIN, Sitti Navisah.
Two-Level Game Analysis on US Decision to Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Insignia: Journal of International Relations, [S.l.], v. 10, n. 2, p. 177-198, nov. 2023.
ISSN 2597-9868.
Available at: <http://jos.unsoed.ac.id/index.php/insignia/article/view/9386>. Date accessed: 27 apr. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.20884/1.ins.2023.10.2.9386.
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