Strategic Hedging in ASEAN: A Response to the Rise of (Beijing and) Washington
Abstract
This article problematizes three predominant narratives surrounding the behavior of ASEAN member states and the rivalry between Beijing and Washington in the context of ASEAN’s political security. This qualitative research is developed through a mixed assessment of documents, archive, and literature reviews combined with behavioral and contextual observations. Firstly, it questions the narrative of the ‘assertiveness’ of China as a rising power. With close trading relations dating back to the first dynasties, this Paper argues that the notion of China’s assertiveness and aggression is misplaced. As a key regional trade partner, China was never a threat to ASEAN countries. This narrative developed with the growing interest of the United States to contain the region from China over the years. As such, there lies a gap in the literature, which leads to the singling out of narratives that better explain the holistic relation between ASEAN states and China. Secondly, this article surfaces the lack of consistent commitment of the US to the Asia Pacific (also referred to as the ‘Asia Pivot’), other than to signify its interest in aggressively preventing China from dominating the Indo-Pacific. In this sense, the US’ behavior is viewed less as a great power but more as a greatly reactive one. Lastly, hedging is analyzed here as a necessary response to the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific arena and not a manner of indecisiveness among member states, often claimed as ‘small states’ in the face of the rivalry taking place in its backyard.
Keywords: ASEAN, assertiveness, China, hedging, strategy
References
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Yuzhu, W. (2021). Hedging Strategy: Concept, Behavior, and Implications for China-ASEAN Relations. East Asian Affairs, 1(2), 1-36.
Bentley, M. (2013). Continuity We Can Believe In: Escaping the War on Terror. In M. Bentley & J. Holland (Eds.), Obama’s Foreign Policy: Ending the War on Terror (p. 91-107). London: Routledge.
Chen, D., Pu, X., & Johnston, A. I. (2013). Debating China’s Assertiveness: International Security, 38(3), 176–183.
Chen, R. (2013). A Critical Analysis of the U.S. “Pivot” toward the Asia-Pacific: How Realistic is Neo- realism?. Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes, 12(3), 39–62.
Cheng, J. Y. S. (2013). China’s Regional Strategy and Challenges in East Asia. China Perspectives, 94(2), 53–65.
Cook, M. (2014). Southeast Asia and the Major Powers: Engagement not Entanglement. Southeast Asian Affairs, 2014(1), 37–52.
Fisher, M., & Carlsen, A. (2018). How China Is Challenging American Dominance in Asia. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/09/world/asia/china-us-asia-rivalry.html
Goh, E. (2014). The Modes of China’s Influence: Cases from Southeast Asia. Asian Survey, 54(5), 825–848.
Guan, K. C., & Kwang, H. F. (2023). Southeast Asia in the Forgotten History of the Maritime Silk Road? S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Commentary, 146(2023), 1–4.
He, K. (2018). China and Southeast Asia: Strategic Interdependence in the Making? National Bureau of Asian Research, 18(4).
Holroyd, R. (2021). The shift from indirect to direct trade between China and South Asia, 1684–1740. Journal of Global History, 16(1), 85–100. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1740022820000157
Johnston, A. I. (2013). How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness? International Security , 37(4), 7–48.
Karim, M. F., & Chairil, T. (2016). Waiting for Hard Balancing? Explaining Southeast Asia’s Balancing Behaviour towards China. European Journal of East Asian Studies, 15(1), 34–61.
Kim, J. (2015). Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea: Implications for Security in Asia and Beyond. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 9(2), 107–141.
Kwik, C.-C. (2021). Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective. China International Strategy Review , 2021(3), 300–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5
Li, A. H. F. (2017). China Facing the Trump Presidency: Opportunities for Global Power Projection? China Perspectives, 2017(2), 69–73. https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.7357
Liao, N.-C. C. (2016). The sources of China’s assertiveness: the system, domestic politics or leadership preferences? International Affairs, 92(4), 817–833.
Limsira, P. (2015). Thailand as an ASEAN-China Coordinator Country on the South China Sea Disputes. Journal of East Asia and International Law, 7(2), 554–560.
Lubina, M. (2017). Russia and China: A Political Marriage of Convenience – Stable and Successful. Opladen, Berlin & Toronto: Barbara Budrich Publishers.
Manyin, M. E., Daggett, S., Dolven , B., Lawrence , S. V., Martin, M. F., O’Rourke, R., & Vaughn, B. (2012). Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia. Congressional Research Service.
Minasny, B. (2020). “The dark history of slavery and racism in Indonesia during the Dutch colonial period.” The Conversation. Accessed from https://theconversation.com/the-dark-history-of-slavery-and-racism-in-indonesia-during-the-dutch-colonial-period-141457.
Murphy, A. M. (2017). Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics, and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages. Asian Security, 13(3), 165–182. https://doi.org/0.1080/14799855.2017.1354566
Ong-Webb, G. (2020). Southeast Asia in 2019: Adjustment and Adaptation to China’s Regional Impact. Southeast Asian Affairs, 2020(1), 3–18.
Renwick, N. (2016). China as a Development Actor in Southeast Asia (pp. 1–30). Institute of Development Studies.
Scobell, A., & Harold, S. W. (2013). An “Assertive” China? Insights from Interviews. Asian Security, 9(2), 111–131. https://doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2013.795549
Sen, T. (2014). Maritime Southeast Asia Between South Asia and China to the Sixteenth Century. TRaNS: Trans-Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia, 2(1), 31–59. https://doi.org/10.1017/trn.2013.15
Sinaga, L. C. (2015). China’s Assertive Foreign Policy in South China Sea under Xi Jinping:Its Impact on the United States and Australian Foreign Policy. Journal of ASEAN Studies, 3(2), 133–149.
Singh, D. (2021). How Will Shifts in American Foreign Policy Affect Southeast Asia? In Trends in Southeast Asia (pp. 1–38). ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
Strangio, S. (2021). “Amitav Acharya on ASEAN and Its Discontents.” The Diplomat. Accessed from https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/amitav-acharya-on-asean-and-its-discontents/.
Steffens, A. W. (2013). Scramble in the South China Sea: Regional Conflict and US Strategy. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 7(3), 88–107.
Stepanov, A. S. (2022). US Policy towards Southeast Asia: from Barack Obama to Joe Biden. Her Russ Acad Sci., 92(15). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331622210183
Sugihara, K. (2022). Multiple Paths to Industrialization: A Global Context of the Rise of Emerging States. In K. Otsuka & K. Sugihara (Eds.), Paths to the Emerging State in Asia and Africa (pp. 1–299). Springer Open.
Tinh, L. D. (2019). Trends and Trenches in the Indo-Pacific: A Southeast Asian View. Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.
Turcsanyi, R. Q. (2017). “What’s Really Behind Chinese Assertiveness in the South China Sea?” The Diplomat. Accessed from https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/whats-really-behind-chinese-assertiveness-in-the-south-china-sea/.
United Nations. (2019, September). “Warning against “Great Fracture”, Secretary-General Opens Annual General Assembly Debate with Call to Avoid Zero-Sum Politics, Revive United Nations Values | UN Press.” Accessed from https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12183.doc.html.
Vann, M. G. (2014). When the World Came to Southeast Asia Malacca and the Global Economy. Maritime Asia, 19(2).
Wardhana, A. (2018). Grand Strategy Obama: Pivot to Asia. Global & Strategis, 12(1).
Xuetong, Y. (2020). Bipolar Rivalry in the Early Digital Age. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2020(1), 313–341. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poaa007
Yamada, H. (1971). The origins of British colonization of Malaya with special reference to its tin. The Developing Economies, 9(3), 225–245. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.1971.tb00471.x
Yamamoto, N. (2014). Shaping the “China Problem” of Colonial Southeast Asia. TRaNS: Trans-Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia, 2(1), 131–153. https://doi.org/10.1017/trn.2013.19
Yuzhu, W. (2021). Hedging Strategy: Concept, Behavior, and Implications for China-ASEAN Relations. East Asian Affairs, 1(2), 1-36.
Published
2024-04-09
How to Cite
SANTOSO, Yulida Nuraini.
Strategic Hedging in ASEAN: A Response to the Rise of (Beijing and) Washington.
Insignia: Journal of International Relations, [S.l.], v. 11, n. 1, p. 36-50, apr. 2024.
ISSN 2597-9868.
Available at: <http://jos.unsoed.ac.id/index.php/insignia/article/view/10606>. Date accessed: 29 apr. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.20884/1.ins.2024.11.1.10606.
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