PERAMALAN VOLUME IMPOR BERAS DAN FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Rice is a strategic food commodity that plays a crucial role in maintaining national food security in Indonesia. In recent years, rice import volume has increased substantially due to declining domestic production and growing consumption demand. This study aims to analyze the trend of rice imports in Indonesia, forecast rice import volume for the 2025–2026 period, and identify the factors influencing rice imports. A quantitative approach was employed using monthly time-series data from January 2020 to December 2024 obtained from Statistics Indonesia, the Ministry of Agriculture, the World Bank, and Bank Indonesia. Data were analyzed using trend analysis, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting, and multiple linear regression. The results reveal a substantial increase in rice import volume, particularly since 2023. ARIMA (2,1,4) was identified as the best forecasting model, indicating that rice imports are expected to continue increasing throughout 2025–2026. Regression results show that domestic rice production has a significant negative effect on rice imports, while domestic rice prices and international rice prices have significant positive effects. In contrast, rice consumption and the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar do not significantly affect rice imports. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening domestic rice production and implementing more adaptive import policies to support national food security