PERBANDINGAN KEAKURATAN METODE MACK CHAIN LADDER DAN BORNHUETTER -FERGUSON DALAM ESTIMASI CADANGAN KLAIM

Abstrak

Abstract: Risk is an uncertain event that can cause losses, both financially and non-financially, so insurance is needed as a form of protection. In insurance, claim reserves are an estimate of the funds that a company must prepare to pay claims in the future. This study aims to compare two claim reserve estimation methods, namely Mack Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and evaluate their accuracy using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The Mack Chain Ladder method uses cumulative triangle run-off data, while the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method combines the loss ratio approach with incremental triangle run-off data. The data used comes from an insurance company in the United States with a claim period of 2013–2022. The estimation results show that the claim reserve with the Mack Chain Ladder method is 1,406,731 million USD with an RMSE value of 199,826, while with the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method it is 1,386,492 million USD with an RMSE value of 83,251. These results indicate that the smaller RMSE value is obtained by using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

Keywords: insurance, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, claims reserve, Mack Chain Ladder